The Association for Decentralised Energy
The UK’s electricity system has undergone a rapid transformation in recent years, driven by the twin imperatives of decarbonisation and energy security. With the last coal plant shutting down last year, coal is no longer part of the grid generation fuel mix, and Combined Cycle Gas Turbines (CCGT) have become the predominant marginal source of power. The energy mix continues to evolve with significant increases in renewable capacity, growing reliance on offshore wind, and the expansion of grid-scale battery storage. Meanwhile, system flexibility—through demand-side response, energy storage, and smart grid solutions—is becoming ever more critical. NESO’s Future Energy Scenarios highlight the increasing importance of these developments in ensuring grid stability and achieving net zero.
As the UK progresses towards its 2050 net zero target, the electricity system must balance growing volumes of variable renewable generation with reliable, dispatchable sources of power. Industrial electrification is gaining momentum, and businesses are engaging more actively with flexible energy solutions. Understanding the real-time emissions impact of different generation sources is becoming increasingly crucial—not only for policymakers and grid operators but also for businesses making investment decisions about their energy use.
Combined Heat and Power (CHP) continues to play a significant role in Great Britain’s energy mix, providing high-efficiency, decentralised generation that supports both industrial and commercial energy users. CHP remains one of the most effective ways to deliver combined power and heat, offering resilience and cost savings to businesses. As the UK moves towards net zero, accurately assessing CHP’s real-time carbon impact is essential to ensure it remains a strategic and viable component of the energy transition.
This is where the ADE Research CHP Marginal Emissions Tool comes in—a modern, web-based resource that reflects today’s energy landscape far more effectively than its predecessor. Previously, the tool existed in a spreadsheet format that relied on outdated assumptions and static data sets. The original model was developed when coal played a significant role in the grid mix, and as the transition away from coal accelerated, the calculations became increasingly outdated. Updates were manual, requiring users to download large files and recalculate figures, making it difficult to extract precise, timely data. Recognising these challenges, ADE Research has reimagined the tool from first principles, embedding it within a platform that is both accurate and convenient for our members.
Central to this improved accuracy is the incorporation of data provided by the National Electricity System Operator (NESO). The system now automatically updates every day, drawing on the last year’s worth of information up to the previous day. This daily refresh eliminates the inertia of the old spreadsheet approach, ensuring that users always have access to calculations informed by the most recent operational conditions on the grid. Furthermore, the rebuilt tool includes next-day carbon intensity forecasts on both regional and national scales, enabling members to make proactive decisions about when to run or adjust their CHP systems. By anticipating periods of higher or lower emissions on the grid, operators can align their CHP usage to times when they can maximise carbon savings—or avoid unnecessary emissions.
For those using the tool, the experience has become notably more streamlined. Instead of juggling spreadsheets and recalculating each time parameters change, members now access a dedicated website, enter their CHP profile details once, and receive a unique code that stores and recalls their information. Calculations can be revisited whenever needed, and the tool will always reflect the latest daily data. This improved approach addresses a common pain point in energy analysis, where repeated manual data entry often leads to errors or inconsistencies. By handling the complexity behind the scenes, the platform frees up users to focus on the real question at hand: how can CHP be run in the most efficient, cost-effective, and sustainable manner?
Beyond its day-to-day functionality, the new tool represents a significant milestone for the ADE Research team. Rebuilding this resource in-house demonstrates not just our technical capability but our commitment to providing members with data-driven solutions that keep pace with changing market conditions. The expertise that allowed us to integrate daily data feeds and forecasting will, in future, support a broader suite of tools aimed at other aspects of energy decarbonisation. We are already looking to extend our reach into areas such as industrial and building decarbonisation, the rollout of demand-side flexibility, and sophisticated modelling of energy futures. Our ambition is to create a cohesive set of resources that empower ADE members to navigate the complexities of the ongoing energy transition, armed with insights that are both reliable and easy to interpret.
Providing valuable insights and data-driven support is a key benefit of ADE membership, and the rebuilt CHP Marginal Emissions Tool reinforces this value by offering the most up-to-date, carefully calibrated estimates of marginal emissions on the grid. This data has the potential to influence key operational decisions and support meaningful carbon savings. As the UK continues its journey toward net zero, having a reliable, daily-refreshed lens on grid trends is a real advantage for those who need to balance financial imperatives, regulatory requirements, and environmental considerations.
Ultimately, the new tool is about more than just numbers. It aligns CHP systems with the broader decarbonisation strategy of the country, giving operators and stakeholders a clearer sense of what is happening on the grid from one day to the next. It offers a way to forecast and plan, rather than simply react. And perhaps most importantly, it represents the kind of forward-thinking approach that ADE Research intends to replicate in other areas—making sure our members are equipped not just for today’s energy system, but for the one that is rapidly emerging over the horizon.
For current members, the tool is ready and waiting behind your standard login. For those considering membership, it is a compelling illustration of the kind of technical advantages and trusted insights that ADE Research can provide. We invite everyone with a stake in CHP’s future to explore how these daily updated calculations, paired with the user-friendly portal, can help map out optimal strategies for cleaner, more efficient energy production. It is, quite simply, a fresh take on what marginal emissions analysis can be—and the beginning of a new chapter in ADE Research’s efforts to drive decarbonisation forward.